Leveraging Graph Neural Networks to Forecast Electricity Consumption

Accurate electricity demand forecasting is essential for several reasons, especially as the integration of renewable energy sources and the transition to a decentralized network paradigm introduce greater complexity and uncertainty. The proposed methodology leverages graph-based representations to effectively capture the spatial distribution and relational intricacies inherent in this decentralized network structure. This research work offers a novel approach that extends beyond the conventional Generalized Additive Model framework by considering models like Graph Convolutional Networks or Graph SAGE. These graph-based models enable the incorporation of various levels of interconnectedness and information sharing among nodes, where each node corresponds to the combined load of a subset of consumers (e.g. the regions of a country). More specifically, we introduce a range of methods for inferring graphs tailored to consumption forecasting, along with a framework for evaluating the developed models in terms of both performance and explainability. We conduct experiments on electricity load forecasting, in both a synthetic and a real framework considering the French mainland regions, and the performance and merits of our approach are discussed.

Recommended citation: Campagne, E., Amara-Ouali, Y., Goude, Y., Kalogeratos, A. (2024). “Leveraging Graph Neural Networks to Forecast Electricity Consumption.” In Proceedings of the Machine Learning for Sustainable Power Systems workshop at ECML PKDD 2024, Vilnius, Lithuania.